Refrigerant Price Trends 2026 - Why Prices Keep Climbing

If you've bought refrigerant recently, you know the market is not kind. R-410A has climbed 40–70% from 2022 baseline pricing. R-454B is episodically short, with prices in shortage windows jumping 200–300%. This isn't a passing phase - structural forces are driving it and they persist through 2029.

What's driving R-410A prices up

• →AIM Act step-downs - each 2022, 2024, 2026, 2029 cap cut reduces supply
• →OEMs have transitioned new-build production to R-454B / R-32, dropping new R-410A equipment demand but not service demand - which creates a squeeze on the service-only supply pool
• →Offshore producers have also been squeezed by regional regulation (EU F-Gas)

What's driving R-454B shortages

• →Every major OEM chose R-454B for new residential splits at the same time - demand exploded in 2025–2026
• →Honeywell is the primary producer; capacity ramp lags demand
• →Contractor stockpiling during news cycles amplifies short-term shortages

What you can do

• →Buy locally - shorter supply chains, less freight volatility
• →Stock conservatively: 90–120 days of service refrigerant is reasonable for most Houston service businesses
• →Educate customers - a branded one-pager explaining why their bill is up builds trust
• →Consider a Net-30 supplier relationship to smooth cash flow on higher-ticket orders